NUMERICAL MODELS’ APPLICATION FOR MORPHODYNAMICS ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS IN THE MINHO RIVER ESTUARY
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.32435/envsmoke/xibesymp.1Keywords:
Morphodynamics, Numerical modelling, Climate changesAbstract
The knowledge of physical, biological, and chemical estuarine processes and how they are affected by climate change conditions is essential for improving estuarine management. A common methodological approach for studying these complex processes is based on the implementation of numerical models supported by field data as bathymetry, sediment characteristics, flow discharges, current velocities, and sea water levels. This work is based on the implementation of a numerical model of the Minho River estuary using the Delft3D software. This model is able to simulate hydrodynamic and morphodynamic processes for different time scales. It was calibrated using the OpenDA tool, which automatically determines some of the models’ parameters, such as the tidal constituents and the roughness coefficient, aiming to minimize the error between observed data and simulated results. Different scenarios were considered to assess the effects of climate change, according to the 5th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Results showed that the elevation in the estuary mouth can reach 77 cm, depending on the considered scenario. It was also determined that floods are the main sediment transport driver along the estuary, intensifying the accretion processes. Furthermore, the sea-level rise reduces the amount of transported sediments to the coastal platform, increasing the erosion risk in this area and increasing the accretion inside the estuary.
Downloads
References
APA, A. P. DO A. Plano de Bacia Hidrográfica do Rio Minho. [s.l: s.n.]. Disponível em: <http://www.apambiente.pt/_zdata/Politicas/Agua/PlaneamentoeGestao/PBH2001/Douro_RelatorioFinal.pdf>.
BALSINHA, M. J. et al. Textural composition of sediments from Minho and Douro estuaries (Portugal) and its relation with hydrodynamics. Journal of Coastal Research, n. SPEC. ISSUE 56, p. 1330–1334, 2009.
BARBIER, E. B. et al. The value of estuarine and coastal ecosystem services. Ecological Monographs, v. 81, n. 2, p. 169–193, maio 2011.
DES, M. et al. Hydrodynamics of river plume intrusion into an adjacent estuary: The Minho River and Ria de Vigo. Journal of Marine Systems, v. 189, n. May 2018, p. 87–97, 1 jan. 2019.
GARCIA, M. et al. Application of a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model for San Quintin Bay, B.C., Mexico. Validation and calibration using OpenDA. Journal of Computational and Applied Mathematics, v. 273, p. 428–437, 1 jan. 2015.
HIRABAYASHI, Y. et al. Global flood risk under climate change. Nature Climate Change, v. 3, n. 9, p. 816–821, 2013.
IGLESIAS, I. et al. Two Models Solutions for the Douro Estuary: Flood Risk Assessment and Breakwater Effects. Estuaries and Coasts, v. 42, n. 2, p. 348–364, 13 mar. 2019a.
IGLESIAS, I. et al. Modelling the Main Hydrodynamic Patterns in Shallow Water Estuaries: The Minho Case Study. Water, v. 11, n. 5, p. 1040, 18 maio 2019b.
IPCC. Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. [s.l: s.n.].
KANDOLF, G. M.; PIÉGAY, H. Tools in Fluvial Geomorphology. Second ed. [s.l.] Wiley Blackwell, 2003.
LUIJENDIJK, A. et al. The State of the World’s Beaches. Scientific Reports, v. 8, n. 1, p. 1–11, 2018.
MASSON-DELMOTTE, V. et al. Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. [s.l: s.n.]. Disponível em: <https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_Full_Report.pdf>.
MENDES, R. et al. New insights into the Western Iberian Buoyant Plume: Interaction between the Douro and Minho River plumes under winter conditions. Progress in Oceanography, v. 141, p. 30–43, fev. 2016.
PORTELA, L. I. Evolução Morfológica, Hidrodinâmica e Dinâmica Sedimentar do Estuário do rio Minho3oSeminário sobre Gestão de Bacias Hidrográficas “Os Estuários, 2011.
RIO-BARJA, F. X.; RODRÍGUEZ-LESTEGÁS, F. Os ríos, in as augas de Galicia. Consello de Cultura, p. 178–180, 1996.
SMALL, C.; NICHOLLS, R.J. A global analysis of human settlement in coastal zones. Journal of Coastal Research, v.19, n.3, p. 584–599, 2003.
SOUSA, M. C. et al. Influence of the Minho River plume on the Rias Baixas (NW of the Iberian Peninsula). Journal of Marine Systems, v. 139, p. 248–260, 1 nov. 2014.
STANSBY, P. K. Coastal hydrodynamics – present and future. Journal of Hydraulic Research, v. 51, n. 4, p. 341–350, 2 ago. 2013.
THE OPENDA ASSOCIATION. OpenDA User Documentation. Disponível em: <https://www.openda.org/docu/openda_2.4/doc/OpenDA_documentation.pdf>. Acesso em: 16 jan. 2020.
TUCCI, C. E. M. Hidrologia Ciência e Aplicação. Associação Brasileira de Recursos Hídricos, 1993.
VOUSDOUKAS, M. I. et al. Extreme sea levels on the rise along Europe’s coasts. Earth’s Future, v. 5, n. 3, p. 304–323, mar. 2017.
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2021 Willian Melo, José Pinho, Isabel Iglesias, Ana Bio, Paulo Avilez-Valente, Ana Gomes, José Vieira, Luísa Bastos, Fernando Veloso-Gomes
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
The copyright for manuscripts published in Environmental Smoke belongs to the author, with first publication rights for the journal. The published articles are of total and exclusive responsibility of the authors.
